Anni or Hassan Saeed?

The way I see things, either Anni or Hassan Saeed may win the presidential race, with Gayoom and Ibra following close behind. Umar Naseer, to my mind, will sink to the bottom with Gasim for company.

These are extremely subjective predictions based solely on intuition and observation.

I think the turning point came with the live broadcasting of a Q&A involving all presidential hopefuls, in which Hassan Saeed shone, Anni was tame, Ibra spoke well, and Gayoom, Gasim and Umar Naseer slipped into insignificance.

Since a previous post in which I said Gasim had the best chance to clinch the presidency the mood of the people has changed dramatically. The about turn is  the outcome of growing engagement in politics by people of all walks of life. 

So here's my new "chart".

1)Hassan Saeed

Saeed has been amassing huge support for months and this is manifesting itself in every poll. Given that he lacks direct access to the media like Gayoom and Anni, his campaign can be said to be doing extremely well. Saeed's speeches and rebuttals are direct, economic, and stinging (as Gayoom found out at the Q&A). Saeed is standing up well to criticism by his envious opponents, mostly Gayoom and Anni, and daily gaining more voters.

2)Anni

Anni has bounced back somewhat, the result of door to door campaigning by hardcore MDP supporters. But his partnership with DRP, to powershare the elections commission, and endorsement of the religious right may have lost him some voters. At the Q&A, Anni refrained from criticising Gayoom as a result of which the limelight was stolen by Ibra and Hassan Saeed. Both DRP and Adhalath have now dumped him, and it remains to be seen if Anni can be exciting again. 

3)Gayoom 

Nobody likes a dictator, but Gayoom will still get some votes because he gives orders to Atoll Chiefs, his stooges people the supreme court and the elections commission, and he owns the government media and the armed forces. I wouldn't be surprised if a contingency plan is already in place, should he lose the elections, for a military takeover of some kind involving Adam Zahir. Gayoom cannot accept defeat.

4)Ibra

Ibra may be a good orator and he clearly has the cleanest slate of the lot, but he just doesn't have the resources to step up his campaign. However, he can still expect a respectable share of the votes.

5)Gasim

Gasim had everything, money, manpower, and beneficiaries who would have supported him. Money can't buy everything, however, and his highly paid advisors and campaign managers have clearly failed him. Candidates with less resources are running better campaigns.

6)Umar Naseer

Totally out of touch with the mood of the people. The fight for democracy that this country has experienced in the last few years was the outcome of a reaction against police brutality on unarmed prisoners. But Umar Naseer is calling to empower the armed forces even more and, indeed, is alleged to have abused people in detention when he was in the NSS. His ill-informed reactionary rants are not helping either. 

Gayoom: the biggest threat to human rights and the environment

Maumoon Abdul Gayoom is in a marketing overdrive not only to sell himself to the Maldives electorate for a staggering 7^th term in office, but also to the committee that will award the coveted Nobel Peace Prize this year. After causing 30 years of human rights abuse and environmental degradation, Asia’s longest serving dictator is now demanding international acclaim for what he and his family regard as exceptional contribution to the advancement of the environmental cause and human rights.

Maldivians will find it incredulous that the Nobel committee can even consider Gayoom for the prize but there is reasonable ground to believe that they actually might laureate the dictator. Firstly, Gayoom’s foreign ministry team, headed by his daughter Dunya Maumoon, is arguing that it was Gayoom who introduced the idea of environmental rights as a human right to the world, and this concept has been gaining support among international developmental circles. Secondly, the Nobel Peace Prize has never been awarded to anyone in South Asian, a region comprising a sixth of the world’s population, and the organisors may well want to broaden laureates geographically. With co-ordinated effort by the foreign ministry, unscrupulous diplomats in South Asia, and perhaps even a Maldivian environmental NGO hastily put together for the purpose getting Gayoom laureated, the prospect does not seem so inconceivable after all.

Maumoon Abdul Gayoom in the 1980s embraced the environmental buzz sweeping the world, not really taking it to heart but regarding it as a means of earning international praise and aid, most of which is said to have been pocketed by his buddies with whom he ran the country.

Gayoom’s development policy has never in three decades ever seriously considered environmental impacts. For example, he has dynamited the fragile coral reefs of most of the country’s 200 inhabited island to build artificial harbours, and carried out dredging to reclaim land for the growing population. Gayoom also has a habit of building expensive artificial islands to move the population when there are several large island villages with perfect natural harbours. And, the dictator has resisted calls to protect threatened marine species such as sharks; shark teeth, for instance, are still allowed to be sold in souvenir shops even though ordinary Maldivians have long protested.

Moreover, Gayoom owns a fleet of 30-50 vehicles on the two-square kilometer capital of Male, as well as several speed boats for his personal transport, and can accurately be described as the biggest polluter in the Maldives.

In an article published in the International Herald Tribune Gayoom goes to lengths to market himself as a champion of the environment, deriding world leaders for appearing “content to allow countries like the Maldives to disappear beneath the waves, while they continue to make a deeply unethical trade-off between human lives and rights on one hand, and economic growth.” Gayoom, while criticising others, fails to realize the neglect by his own government in three decades to meet the basic needs of his people. As much as 60 percent of the Maldivian population has no access to adequate sewage disposal or, indeed, safe drinking water.

When the 2004 tsunami struck the Maldives the dictator downplayed its impacts on national radio and TV without checking on the plight of the people first. Later, when it emerged that several islands, most of which had had its reefs dynamited by Gayoom, were irreparably damaged, he used the worst natural disaster in the country’s living memory to get unprecedented foreign aid. Four years later, nobody has a clue where all the money went but most of the displaced tsunami victims are still in shoddy temporary shelters.

Gayoom’s human rights record is even worse. Ahmed Shafeeg, a respected historian who was jailed and tortured by Gayoom for writing unsavoury comments about him in a personal diary and sharing them with friends, estimates that the deaths of more than 100 people may have been caused by the regime. There are several well-documented cases of prisoner abuse, far more shocking than anything that ever emerged out of Quantanamo, in what can only be described as a culture of torture. As head of police Gayoom knew of the abuse and, indeed, may even have ordered it to force would-be opponents into submission.

One of the earliest opponents of Gayoom, Ahmed Adam, the dictator’s classmate in Egypt, died from years of torture. Madulu Ahmed Waheed, a brilliant writer of the now banned “Hukuru” magazine, which openly criticized Gayoom in the 1990s, didn’t die , but years of abuse in police custody and prison has reduced him to a state of autism. Today, Waheed can be seen walking on the streets of Male, mostly in Machchangolhi, seemingly unresponsive to anyone or anything.

The 2004 beating to death of Hassan Evan Naseem by Gayoom’s police and the point-blank shooting of unarmed prisoners who protested against the murder are also well-documented. Custodial deaths have been happening even as late as 2007, but inquiry by the shameful human rights commission, which comprises of Gayoom’s friends who pretend to be independent, have always cleared the dictator and his regime of wrong-doing. Of the members of the presidential commission which investigated the murder of Evan Naseem and others in prison, Aishath Mohamed Didi and Mohamed Nasheed were silenced with ministerial posts. At present they are the most fervent defenders of Gayoom.

Instead of buying Gayoom’s paltry propaganda, the international community should be helping Maldivians send Maumoon Abdul Gayoom to Hague, for crimes against humanity.

If you’re as outraged as I am about Gayoom’s nomination for the Nobel Peace prize, write to Professor Gair Lundestad, Director, Norwegian Nobel Institute. His email is gl@nobel.no

You may also want to sign a petition against the nomination

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/No_Noble_Prize4_Gayoom/index.html

Gasim, Gayoom and the great Maldives election

With the emergence of Gasim in the presidential lineup, Gayoom's 30-year-dictatorship is looking more threatened than it ever did. Of the 8 candidates contesting this year's presidential elections here's a list of the only contenders who, to my mind, have any chance of swinging the first multi-party elections of the Maldives.


1)Gasim Ibrahim
Filthy rich Gasim has the resources, the people, and the willpower to get the job done. Yes, he may employ questionable methods to achieve his goal, whether it means buying parliamentarians or voters themselves. But nobody can argue that his chances of success are very high indeed. As much as half the Maldives population may have benefited directly or indirectly from his health handouts or educational grants. Now, Gasim is effectively asking them to pay him back by voting for him. On the positive side, he's less despised than Gayoom, has more vision, and has qualified and experienced people working on his campaign.


2)Maumoon Abdul Gayoom
Regarded by most Maldivians as a washed out dictator and an object of ridicule, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, nevertheless, thinks of himself as smart, handsome, young at heart, and loved by the people. This man continues to use state funds, TV, radio, and even the national football team for his campaign. He still has control over the armed forces, and has his stooges as Island Chiefs and Atoll Chiefs although the level of their influence over ordinary islanders has diminished somewhat. If Mohamed Amin modernised the Maldives through education and social change, Ibrahim Nasir continued the gains by laying the foundations for the country's greatest foreign exchange earners: tourism and fisheries. Gayoom basked in the results of the work of his predecessors but lacked the vision to build on it. On the positive side...no I can't think of anything good to say about him!


Gayoom will be remembered as the corrupt dictator who tried to crush every attempt by the people to bring democracy; the man who sanctioned the torture and killing of defenseless Maldivians; the advocate of child sexual abuse; and, most important of all, the bad cricket player.


3)Anni
Anni shone in the early 90, a true radical, unafraid to take on Gayoom's cruel and corrupt dictatorship to fight for democracy and justice. His work to expose Gayoom's dictatorship to the wider world is also commendable. But his misguided pandering to the religious right is downright shameful. He has ignored the role of women in the opposition movement, and in the formation and day to day running of MDP; gender equality is not part of either his "Clean Maldives" or his "Other Maldives". He lies when it suits him, patronizes ordinary people, and finds it hard to listen to anyone who disagrees with his views.


MDP today is a fragmented movement that has lost the ideals it stood for, ideals which were rooted in a widespread desire for democracy and human rights. Lately, Anni has taken to harping on Gayoom's positive contribution to the country and insists that the dictator can run for a seventh term in office, even though the amended constitution limits leadership to two terms in office. In return, Gayoom's apologist, information minister, and hearty blogger Nasheed has said the government does not consider Anni's sentence for petty theft a disqualification for his presidential bid. All very cozy indeed, but Anni may only be joining the enemy to fight Gasim.


3)Ibra
One of the first casualties of Anni's "dictatorship", Ibra is a brilliant orator who is slowly and steadily winning the confidence of the public. His unwavering contribution to amending the constitution, a process which he rightly called the slow, systematic stripping of Gayoom's powers, must be lauded. Unfortunately, like Anni, he never found the right balance between the contradictory ideologies of the religious right on the one hand and human rights on the other. Ibra also probably doesn't have the finances to push an aggressive campaign to get himself elected.


4)Hassan Saeed
I really liked this man, as he stood for liberal ideals such as the freedom of religion, a fundamental human right. He stood up not only against Gayoom, but also extremists, something Anni and Ibra were too spineless to do. But he's also said to be a bit of an elitist and out of touch with ordinary people. Lately he's been heard a lot on radio and has reportedly built himself quite a fan-base. Nevertheless, his campaign, like Ibra's, just isn't aggressive enough to win a substantial electorate at this point of time.


So what does the future hold for us?


As things stand I predict a close win for Gasim. This will get Gayoom out, but will leave the country in the hands of unscrupulous, capitalist who will not only control its wealth and its parliament, but will also by the country's fledgeling media.

There's a way out, however, and that is for Anni, Ibra and Hassan join forces. If they launch a joint campaign, have elections pushed back to December as Ibra suggests, they may, just may, win the hearts and minds of the Maldivian public, if not fill their pockets.

MDP's step backward

Last week saw Maldivian Democratic Party MDP step back, yet again, on its stated commitment to gender equality. 

Shortly after presidential candidate Mohamed Nasheed Anni announced Dr. Aminath Jameel as his running mate, the party's religious right reportedly went into a diatribe against the nomination. It didn't seem to take too long to convince Anni to withdraw the nomination.

The party's Islamic consultative council, headed by Adam BA Naseem, declared the nomination un-Islamic but failed, as usual, to provide any evidence for the pronouncement. Naseem and fellow-misogynists from the Adhaalath Party have a history of openly hurtling anti-women rants on the populace in the name of Islam, without necessarily furnishing a supporting argument. In fact Islamic scholarship is producing a number of academics who are successfully challenging conventional positions. But when people like Dr. Afraasheem Ali and, belatedly, Dr. Hassan Saeed, try to present alternative interpretations, BA Naseem and co are unable to argue convincingly against them and, as a result, resort to name-calling. In some cases, hardline 'scholars' have even called for the death of people's whose views they're incapable of debating. 

These marginally qualified 'scholars' have only been able get their way in the "reform process" because of spineless politicians like Anni, who seem more fearful of offending a handful of Adhaalath supporters than safeguarding the rights of half of the country's population.

There will be those who jump at my dismissal of  Adhaalath supporters. But even from a political point of view, they're not substantial enough to justify the surrendering of basic human rights. If these people comprised a significant proportion of the population, the Adhaalath Party and the Islamic Democratic Party would have the highest number of members, not the DRP and the MDP.

Many MDP sympathisers say they are 'disappointed' with  Anni, and also Dr. Aminath Jameel and Maria for putting up with his shameful behaviour. But they should remember that MDP, despite professing otherwise, has a very poor record with regard to gender equality.

Early in 2007, the MDP's religious consultative council issued a fatwa against the party's assistant secretary Aishath Aniya, for an article in which she criticised 'scholars' for trying to lower the status of women through misogynistic interpretations of Islam. She was forced to go into hiding and resign from her post, while Anni and the party's president Munavvar didn't utter a word in public in support of Aniya's right to the freedom of expression. 

Also in 2007, BA Naseem threatened to leave the party because of its support for the appointment of female judges, but Anni put his foot down. "The policies of our party are very clear," he told minivannews.com. "All men are equal." 

The professed commitment to equality didn't stop MDP members from proposing an amendment to the constitution to bar women from running for presidency, which received the support of 'reformist' Mohamed Shihab and an abstinence by 'liberal' Ibra. Fortunately, Gayoom's unelected members defeated the motion and Maldivian women can now run for leadership, a right which the MDP did not want them to have. 

In defense, MDP members have tried to throw the tired argument that gender equality is secondary at a time when all effort must go into getting Gayoom out. All indications are, however, that MDP may lack the tactics or the resources for even its number one task.  

All is not lost though. Buruma Gasim and his Republican Party are reportedly buying all the politicians and voters necessary to dethrone Gayoom. If they succeed, MDP will become as 'insignificant' as the gender issue it tried to push under the carpet. 

Gayoom scores another one

If Gayoom hoped to score political points with the national football team's first gold, he must be a happy man today. He seems to have fooled everyone, including the opposition, as he led the nation to a dance calculated to garner maximum support and exposure for himself and cover up those uncomfortable day to day events that just aren't part of the reality he wants people to see, hear, or question.

An unconfirmed report suggests that the high profile child sexual abuse case involving a close ally of Gayoom at the President's Office, which was conducted behind closed doors, may have quietly reached a not guilty verdict.

At the same time, scores of people from Kulhudhuffushi, who did nothing more than demand why the government isn't keeping its promises, have been arrested for allegedly inciting and taking part in the violent removal of minister Ahmed Abdulla from their island. Given well-documented human rights abuses in custody, people have a right to be concerned about the plight of these people.

Meanwhile the economy, which has been in shambles for a long time, has taken another downturn. Maldives Monetary Authority governor Abdulla Jihad is warning of a massive drop in the country's foreign reserves as a result of government overspending, even as Gayoom continues his extravagant campaign handouts. 

Each player and official of the national football team was paid an amount of over US$15,000 by Gayoom. The dictator later said that the SAFF trophy would travel to all inhabited Maldivian islands, the clearest signal that the dictator intends to milk the football glory for everything it's worth for his upcoming elections. 

But this shameful bribery by Gayoom on national television, mounting reports of human rights abuses by the police, the release of pro-government paedophiles, and the collapse of the economy seem to be the last things on peoples minds as the mad frenzy of the football celebrations enters its third day---just as Gayoom planned.

It's a sad day for the country when no one will raise their voices against Gayoom, even though everyone can see through him.

The national football team should apologise to the Maldivian public for selling out to Gayoom by presenting him with the No. 1 football shirt. With DRP's top Gayoom arse-licker Hanim behind the move, the football association of the Maldives has allowed its members and players to show political allegiance to the dictator. 

In the game against India, Maldivian footballers may have outshone in skill and tact, but in Gayoom's political game they've proved to be passive, greedy and gullible.

Father of football

Maldivians, for a change, are dancing to dictator Gayoom's tune.  As the sun set today, the entire country, if "Golha TV" is to be belived, was wearing red in support of its national football team in the SAFF final in Colombo tonight.

It should be noted that never in Gayoom's three decades has the Maldives football team clinched a championship, despite disproportionate spending by his government in a region dominated by cricket.

Maldivian football players showed their gratitude at the start of the championship by presenting Gayoom with a red football shirt emblazoned "Maumoon Number 1". This extraordinary endorsement of the dictator is, by default, an endorsement of his government's appalling human rights record and disregard to justice. 

There are those who argue that sport is above politics. But this argument doesn't really apply to a country in which the government controls everything to do with sports, from who gets invited to sit on the stage in the national stadium to the hairlength of footballers.

When a TV Maldives announcer a few years ago expressed support for Gayoom, in a public broadcast, the public was quick to label her "Golha Waleed". 

But when national football players endorsed the dictator, nobody called them "Golha Team".

Maldivians, by supporting the national football team, are turning their backs on the cold-blooded murder of Hassan Eevan Naseem and other inmates in Maafushi jail in 2003 by the dictator's police.

As I write this post, Gayoom is likely to be wearing his football shirt and watching Maldives play mighty India, hoping for a chance to call himself the "father of football".

If he succeeds, most Maldivians will have no right to make fun of him.

Bastardising Islam

When Islamic Democratic Party leader Umar Naseer declared that only Muslims would have Maldivian citizenship, he was going against a fundamental right in Islam.

The Quran is very clear on its position on the freedom of religion. According to verse 2:256, "There is no compulsion in religion", while verse 109.6 states "Unto you your religion, and unto me my religion". A third, verse 18:29 says "Whosoever will, let him believe, and whosoever will, let him disbelieve". 

Religious belief and practice, therefore, is a personal matter as, indeed, only Reeko Moosa Manik seems to have had the courage to say openly. Anyone who wants to force Islam on others are operating outside the religious mandate.

This is the central premise of "Apostasy and Islam", which presidential hopeful Hassan Saeed wrote with his brother. The book seems to have suddenly offended the Adhalath Party and the IDP and its spineless co-writer has chosen to bend down under the pressure and distance himself from the book, in much the same way Anni and Munawwar looked the other way when the religious right literally called for former MDP assistant secretary general Aishath Aniya's blood after her anti-buruga article. 

The Adhalat Party, a political party that appears to devote most of its meetings to misogynistic rants and women's clothing, has declared the book anti-Islamic. As with their criticism of Afrasheem, the only openly liberal Islamic scholar in the Maldives, the party hasn't bothered to provide any intelligent argument against the book. Only ignorance and extremism can explain the Adhalat-IDP vilification of a book that so strongly argues for an essential Islamic right.

Umar Naseer, in his condemnation of Hassan Saeed for having been part of the book, has called for a ban. His main argument is that it might encourage Maldivians with lesser intelligence than himself to renounce Islam. In fact, its people like Umar Naseer and Abdul Majeed Abdul Bari that put people off Islam.

A former cop, probably still in Gayoom's payroll, Umar Naseer has been accused by 'backbone' Mahir of torturing him in prison. Although Naseer denies the allegation, he has always been pro-police. Recently, he even justified the notorious 2003 police shooting of unarmed prisoners, which sparked all the political developments in the Maldives and, in fact, allowed him to form a political party. 

Maldivians have habitually been easy-going Muslims. But Maumoon Abdul Gayoom changed all that when he came into office in 1978. Together with his buddy Zahir Hussein, Gayoom spread religious right wing ideology to remote islands and is today under threat from this very ideology. MDP's Kalhube Abdul Latheef, among others, helped Gayoom in the campaign and has since switched sides to carry on with the same work inside MDP.

The Maldives today must surely boast the most number of political parties per capita in the world. Although fragmented, these parties show a strange unity when it comes to religious matters. The religious right, whichever party they may belong to, always joins forces to oppose any attempt to educated Maldivians in more liberal interpretations of Islam. 

Some years back, when Amina Wadoud gave a lecture in the Maldives and 'scholars' of the religious right failed to challenge her, she was declared a lesbian. When Afrasheem started to introduce liberal interpretations of Islam, he was physically attacked  and called a stooge of Gayoom.

The outlook doesn't look healthy for Maldivians who want true democracy, including the right to the freedom of religion. Although the New Maldives manifesto appears to promise liberal teachings of Islam, this is yet to happen. For now, the Maldives is in the hands of the religious right and extremists, who have hijacked and bastardised Islam, and no  'reformist' will utter a murmer against them.