Friday, October 3, 2008

Anni or Hassan Saeed?

The way I see things, either Anni or Hassan Saeed may win the presidential race, with Gayoom and Ibra following close behind. Umar Naseer, to my mind, will sink to the bottom with Gasim for company.

These are extremely subjective predictions based solely on intuition and observation.

I think the turning point came with the live broadcasting of a Q&A involving all presidential hopefuls, in which Hassan Saeed shone, Anni was tame, Ibra spoke well, and Gayoom, Gasim and Umar Naseer slipped into insignificance.

Since a previous post in which I said Gasim had the best chance to clinch the presidency the mood of the people has changed dramatically. The about turn is  the outcome of growing engagement in politics by people of all walks of life. 

So here's my new "chart".

1)Hassan Saeed
Saeed has been amassing huge support for months and this is manifesting itself in every poll. Given that he lacks direct access to the media like Gayoom and Anni, his campaign can be said to be doing extremely well. Saeed's speeches and rebuttals are direct, economic, and stinging (as Gayoom found out at the Q&A). Saeed is standing up well to criticism by his envious opponents, mostly Gayoom and Anni, and daily gaining more voters.

Anni has bounced back somewhat, the result of door to door campaigning by hardcore MDP supporters. But his partnership with DRP, to powershare the elections commission, and endorsement of the religious right may have lost him some voters. At the Q&A, Anni refrained from criticising Gayoom as a result of which the limelight was stolen by Ibra and Hassan Saeed. Both DRP and Adhalath have now dumped him, and it remains to be seen if Anni can be exciting again. 

Nobody likes a dictator, but Gayoom will still get some votes because he gives orders to Atoll Chiefs, his stooges people the supreme court and the elections commission, and he owns the government media and the armed forces. I wouldn't be surprised if a contingency plan is already in place, should he lose the elections, for a military takeover of some kind involving Adam Zahir. Gayoom cannot accept defeat.

Ibra may be a good orator and he clearly has the cleanest slate of the lot, but he just doesn't have the resources to step up his campaign. However, he can still expect a respectable share of the votes.

Gasim had everything, money, manpower, and beneficiaries who would have supported him. Money can't buy everything, however, and his highly paid advisors and campaign managers have clearly failed him. Candidates with less resources are running better campaigns.

6)Umar Naseer
Totally out of touch with the mood of the people. The fight for democracy that this country has experienced in the last few years was the outcome of a reaction against police brutality on unarmed prisoners. But Umar Naseer is calling to empower the armed forces even more and, indeed, is alleged to have abused people in detention when he was in the NSS. His ill-informed reactionary rants are not helping either. 


Anonymous said...

Anni not exciting for you?,
And Hassan Saeed is........?
good luck mate

Anonymous said...

THI MALEY aaalaathun thelhi thelhi thiben jeheynee. Mi faharu Addu Raees eh



Anonymous said...

since the people started realizing the role of Hassan Saeed and Shaheed in covering up the murder of Hussain Salah, the mood of the country is changing. More young people are saying they will not vote for the spin doctors who helped Gayoom survive with the help of Hill & Knowlton. please watch TVM and DhiTV news to see the kind of support that Anni is gaining in places like Kulhudhuffushi, small islands such as Noonu Lhohi, in Thaa Thimarafushi, etc. Your article is very biased.

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Anonymous said...

Dear Mr Dissent,

In your recent posts I find a bias against Anni. Whatever deal that happened between MDP and DRP regarding appointing members to the Elections Commission, MDP is the only party that said anything against torture when Muaviyath Mahmood was killed. MDP is the only party that wrote to international community voicing concerns about Hussain Salah's death. Meanwhile, Dr Shaheed and Dr Hassan Saeed were playing clown to Emperor Gayoom. Dissent is needed for a healthy democracy. We have genuine reasons for our dissent against Dr Hassan and Dr Shaheed.

Anonymous said...

And after voicing concerns during the death of Muaviath, MDP joins hands with DRP and promoting "Maumoon ah vote liyas Hassan Saeed ah vote nullathi"..

MDP, DRP and Hassan Saeed sucks... the only clean candidate is Ibra.. And Ibra will make this happen... You are all in for a massive surprise.

Anonymous said...

MDP'd door to door was an anit-campaign target at Ibra. Their words were "Ibra akee varah rangalhu meeheh, Qaabil meeheh, Ekamaku Ibra ah thaaeedheh nethennun tho.. Ehenma thi beyfylhaa dhevvaa vote gelligen gossaane"... Ask your freinds about this and they will agree that they have come across the same propaganda.

This is almost the exact same words that came out of the people who visited my house...

So door to door was not a campaign... but a desperate measure to deceive the population of Maldives...

So the question is, can MDP be sincere when they come to power.. My judgement is NO..

Vote Ibra...

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

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