These are extremely subjective predictions based solely on intuition and observation.
I think the turning point came with the live broadcasting of a Q&A involving all presidential hopefuls, in which Hassan Saeed shone, Anni was tame, Ibra spoke well, and Gayoom, Gasim and Umar Naseer slipped into insignificance.
Since a previous post in which I said Gasim had the best chance to clinch the presidency the mood of the people has changed dramatically. The about turn is the outcome of growing engagement in politics by people of all walks of life.
So here's my new "chart".
Saeed has been amassing huge support for months and this is manifesting itself in every poll. Given that he lacks direct access to the media like Gayoom and Anni, his campaign can be said to be doing extremely well. Saeed's speeches and rebuttals are direct, economic, and stinging (as Gayoom found out at the Q&A). Saeed is standing up well to criticism by his envious opponents, mostly Gayoom and Anni, and daily gaining more voters.
Anni has bounced back somewhat, the result of door to door campaigning by hardcore MDP supporters. But his partnership with DRP, to powershare the elections commission, and endorsement of the religious right may have lost him some voters. At the Q&A, Anni refrained from criticising Gayoom as a result of which the limelight was stolen by Ibra and Hassan Saeed. Both DRP and Adhalath have now dumped him, and it remains to be seen if Anni can be exciting again.
Nobody likes a dictator, but Gayoom will still get some votes because he gives orders to Atoll Chiefs, his stooges people the supreme court and the elections commission, and he owns the government media and the armed forces. I wouldn't be surprised if a contingency plan is already in place, should he lose the elections, for a military takeover of some kind involving Adam Zahir. Gayoom cannot accept defeat.
Ibra may be a good orator and he clearly has the cleanest slate of the lot, but he just doesn't have the resources to step up his campaign. However, he can still expect a respectable share of the votes.
Gasim had everything, money, manpower, and beneficiaries who would have supported him. Money can't buy everything, however, and his highly paid advisors and campaign managers have clearly failed him. Candidates with less resources are running better campaigns.
Totally out of touch with the mood of the people. The fight for democracy that this country has experienced in the last few years was the outcome of a reaction against police brutality on unarmed prisoners. But Umar Naseer is calling to empower the armed forces even more and, indeed, is alleged to have abused people in detention when he was in the NSS. His ill-informed reactionary rants are not helping either.